NAB chief economist Alan Oster said he expects a “big bounce back” in the economy in the December quarter.
Lockdowns caused the Australian economy to contract by 1.9 per cent in the September quarter – it’s third-largest fall on record.
But Oster said he expects GDP to increase by at least 2 per cent in the December quarter, and by 4 per cent over the course of 2022.
“What we’re seeing is very strong retail sales,” Oster told The Australian Financial Review CFO Live summit.
“Black Friday was way stronger than what we had last year and the year before.“
Oster is forecasting the unemployment rate to fall to 4.2 per cent next year.
He expects the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates in 2023, alongside stronger wages growth and low unemployment.
He said the biggest risks to the recovery were the virus and central banks tightening too fast.
Be the first to comment