Weak private demand and early bushfire-related costs are expected to have weighed on Australia’s economic growth during the December quarter but Tuesday’s GDP figures won’t yet reflect the coronavirus impact.
NAB and Westpac have tipped 0.3 per cent growth for the fourth quarter, citing low wages, a downturn in construction and a subdued global economy for what would be a sluggish result.
The official estimate for the previous quarter is 0.4 per cent, which would result in year-to-year growth of 2.0 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent in the September quarter.
ANZ is more optimistic about the December period and has tipped 0.7 per cent growth for the quarter.
ABS data this week showed stronger than expected inventories, profits and wages prompted the bank to raise its estimate.
JP Morgan has tipped a 0.4 per cent rise.
In its February Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA said the early damage from summer bushfires meant the economy would help limit growth to just 2.0 per cent for the year to December, and 2.0 per cent for the year to June 2020 – down from 2.25 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively as flagged in November.
However, RBA governor Philip Lowe indicated yesterday that GDP growth in the March quarter is now likely to be “noticeably weaker” than expected on account of the coronavirus outbreak.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to publish the December GDP figures at 1130 AEDT.
AAP
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