An outbreak of COVID-19 cases driven by the highly contagious BA.2 variant will probably peak in mid-April and possibly disrupt the federal election campaign, modelling suggests.
Although the outbreak is likely to be smaller than the original omicron peak, it could cause more absenteeism because people will be at work and school rather than on summer break.
It could also strike just as politicians gear up to criss-cross the country in a bid to win votes.
If the government hands down the federal budget on March 29 as promised, the earliest an election can be called is May 7 under the minimum 33-day campaign required in the constitution.
But May 14 or May 21 are more likely dates, ministers and MPs have previously said.
On Friday, the national cabinet agreed to stop quarantining all close contacts as soon as possible. Leaders also agreed to stop large-scale testing and promote voluntary self-isolation, rather than mandatory quarantining. Both actions require endorsement by chief health officers, which means each state will time the measures as they see fit.
“Normally when cases are going up, you tend to put on public health measures, you don’t take them off, so this is against the grain,” South Australian University professor Adrian Esterman said.
But he said the changes reflect a move away from epidemic to endemic status.
“As much as we all wish for this to be over and life to get back to normal, we aren’t quite there yet.
“But I think with better vaccines and improved treatments on the way, it’s at least the beginning of the end.”
Ahead of the predicted April peak of BA.2, experts said worksites should prepare for high staff absenteeism and focus on critical worker shortages. It is recommended that households stock up on masks, rapid tests and pain relief.
Schools will probably see many students stay away because of illness from the omicron variant, which seems to be similarly “mild” compared to the delta variant.
With predictions of another surge cases, the Australian Electoral Commission has put in place contingencies for large-scale postal voting ahead of the federal election in the case of an outbreak. It has predicted slower than usual voting at polling booths, depending on the safety measures adopted by each state.
How much the new wave constrains on-the-ground polling will probably depend on how each state reacts, with Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia having retained light restrictions the longest. Western Australia is still in the early phase of its outbreak, and with testing requirements for people coming from the east.
The prospect of a Covid-19 wave during the election campaign comes as cases across the world are also rising, as the BA.2 variant pushes a second omicron wave.
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