Victoria’s cases fall to 705, one death

This pushes the seven-day average to 723, up from 500 a week ago, but with today’s seven-day average growth slightly down on recent days.

Private analysts estimate the effective reproduction number (Reff) for the outbreak is tracking at about 1.3, but official forecasters reporting to the chief health officers believe the Reff is now below one, tracking at about 0.84.

Various epidemiological models are predicting vaccines will begin to taper the curve in early October.

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