Victoria has recorded 246 local COVID-19 cases, with 121 linked to current chains of transmission.
The cases push the five-day average to 200, leaving the state facing a peak significantly larger than the NSW delta outbreak based on current daily case growth trends.
Some private models are now suggesting case peaks greater than 10,000 in late October. These are based on an effective reproduction number of around 1.9, meaning each infected person is infecting nearly two other people.
The Department of Health said of the 246 new local cases, 121 are linked to known cases and outbreaks.