Victoria looking at outbreak peak of around 2000

Victoria is tracking in line with projections by the Burnet Institute, with the Health minister Martin Foley indicating cases are likely to reach the 1960 median daily case prediction in late October.

“The projected figures we are now seeing … the cases we are seeing is pretty much in line as to where the Burnett modelling said the number of cases and the number of hospitalisations would be,” Foley says.

Burnet is projecting hospitalisations will rise to around 1660 and ICU admissions to 360 in late October, early November. This will be at exactly the same time as the state is hoping to reopen.

Currently there are 375 cases in hospital and 81 in ICU, amid reports that major hospitals are beginning to ramp ambulances as emergency wards become overwhelmed.

“The Burnett modelling has proved to be pretty accurate so far, but it is in with all our power to bend that down quicker and be on the optimistic side of getting out of this we not just follow the rules but get vaccinated as soon as possible again.

He said the case curve can be bended quicker, by getting vaccinated as soon as possible.

“We are not there yet, but with those precisely ramped up efforts of pop-ups and engagement with high-risk communities,” Foley said.

NSW started to see its case curve bend after it hit 50 per cent adult vaccine coverage. Victoria is likely to reach that mark in the next week.

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