CBA tips Q2 real GDP to rise 0.3pc

Economists at CBA expect June quarter national accounts released on Wednesday to show a 0.3 per cent rise in real GDP and 2.1 per cent rise in nominal GDP.

AMP economist Shane Oliver is also tipping a 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise. AMP revised its forecast higher after stronger-than-expected government spending data released by the ABS on Tuesday.

ABS data today also showed that the Australian current account surplus rose to a record $20.5 billion in the June quarter.

AMP also flagged ABS data showing net exports will take one percentage point off June quarter GDP, as export volumes fell and import volumes rose over the quarter.

CBA said: “Job creation was strong over the period but lockdowns around the country at various points will have hit production. Put simply there will be a disparity between strong employment growth in the June quarter and modest GDP growth – stay at home orders reconcile the difference.

“GDP is backward looking and the economic outlook has changed radically because of the delta variant. As such, financial markets will largely discount the data tomorrow. Policymakers, however, will be desperate to avoid a negative GDP print because it would rubber stamp that the Australian economy is in recession.”

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